The Witcher 3 expansion rumours refuse to go away: originating analyst is “100% certain CD Projekt Red will release significant new content this year”
The analyst who forecasted a Witcher 3 expansion release in 2026 has told me they’re “100 percent certain [CD Projekt Red] will release significant new content this year”.
I messaged Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski following a prediction made in a company report that said: “We expect the next paid add-on (DLC) for The Witcher 3 to be released in May 2026.” I wanted to know how confident Chrzanowski was in that prediction and what it was based upon.
If you recall, I asked a similar question of Borys Nieśpielak, who is the other person credited with originating rumours of this unexpected Witcher 3 content release. Nieśpielak stood by the information and said it had been verified by several independent sources.
Chrzanowski – whose information I’m told comes from a mix of publicly available sources and conversations with CD Projekt Red – seems similarly confident. “I’m 100 percent certain CDPR will release significant new content this year,” Chrzanowski told me, “as the incentive program is still 700 million PLN short [GBP 144m].”
This “incentive program” is at the core of Chrzanowski’s reasoning. It’s a part of the salary for key employees at CDPR, usually management, and it aims to incentivise them by granting additional shares should certain financial targets be met. Do well, gain wealth, basically.
In order to meet the requirements, CDPR has to earn PLN 2bn (£412m) cumulative net profit between 2023 and 2026, PLN 3bn (£617m) between 2024 and 2027, and PLN 4bn (£823m) between 2025 and 2028, Chrzanowski explained. And it’s the first threshold bracket the pressure is particularly on. “Currently, PLN 700 million [£144m] is needed to meet the first threshold, with only five quarters remaining,” Chrzanowski said. “This implies the need for something significantly larger than just another update or a version for a niche platform.”
But what has CDPR got that it can release? The company hasn’t released a new game since Cyberpunk 2077 expansion Phantom Liberty in late 2023, though it did bring Cyberpunk 2077 to Switch alongside the console’s release last year, which seemed to work very well. Cyberpunk 2077 continues to sell surprisingly well, passing 35 million sales-mark last year and holding strong as a top-grossing game on Steam, but in order to make up the incentive program shortfall it will need something more. The next announced game in the pipeline, however, is The Witcher 4, which won’t be released before 2027, and probably not for a while after. In other words: after the first threshold bracket ends.
Incidentally, CDPR referenced this incentive program in an earnings call at the end of last year, when it said there was “a chance” it would release new content to help achieve the first stage of it. “Given our current progress, there is a chance that new content hinted upon in recent calls and reports may see release in the coming year, having an impact on our results and increasing the likelihood of achieving the earnings condition for the first stage of the incentive program.”
“90 percent of the time it’s pointed to a Witcher 3 expansion”
This is what’s behind Chrzanowski’s prediction. “90 percent of the time it’s pointed to a Witcher 3 expansion,” Chrzanowski said. “This is a natural direction in terms of the required revenue scale. However, a Witcher-themed game like The Thaumaturge (Fool’s Theory’s latest production) would also be possible. Remember, Fool’s Theory was built on a foundation of Witcher veterans.”
I reviewed The Thaumaturge in 2024 and was encouraged by it. Presentationally, it was a bit dated, or rather limited by what a small team could achieve, but excitingly, it felt different. It told a story set in Warsaw, Poland, at the turn of the 20th century – a setting I hadn’t played in before – that revolved around a magic user known as a Thaumaturge: a person capable of reading people’s thoughts and battling literal demons living there. It was strategic, thoughtful, authentic and unique.
Naturally, my interest was also heightened by The Thaumaturge being the debut game of a studio hired to remake The Witcher 1. We know that remake has stalled a bit as Fool’s Theory helps The Witcher 4 team grapple with Unreal Engine 5, which The Witcher 1 remake will also use – CDPR’s Red Engine has been left behind. But Fool’s Theory is rumoured to be making this new Witcher 3 expansion as well.
“It’s worth noting that CDPR is sparing with words,” Chrzanowski added, “so such a strong indication of new content in the report and during the conference provides certainty, especially since declarations about meeting the incentive program goals have been communicated for a long time. The Thaumaturge premiered in March 2023, so The Witcher has been a priority since then. The team has grown from 60 to 100 people. However, some support the development of The Witcher 4 and are waiting for joint assets to be developed.”
It’s a convincing argument but there remain plenty of reasons to be sceptical. If something as considerable as a Witcher 3 expansion were in development – something which will be compared to existing Witcher 3 expansions Hearts of Stone and Blood and Wine – would CDPR risk not making it in-house? Those previous expansions have been generous, celebrated things. But to make it in-house would mean re-establishing a team that moved on nearly 10 years ago and working on old tech, and it has its more than full making The Witcher 4. Perhaps Fool’s Theory has been entrusted with it.
There’s also the question of what an expansion would be if it were in development. Geralt effectively retired at the end of Blood and Wine, and The Witcher 4 is led by Ciri. Presumably Ciri’s story will be handled by The Witcher 4, so would that mean Geralt would come back? Wouldn’t that be confusing in terms of stealing thunder away from Ciri? Or could it be a game about someone else entirely – the sorcerer Yennefer, perhaps? And how big would it be and how much would CDPR charge for it? Questions, questions. Let’s hope we get some answers, and soon.